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A Hold Is Not an All-Clear

September's unanimous increase and October's 10–2 pause can both be true. Neither document says inflation is finished.

By Samuel Ives, Opinion Editor

Washington1 min read

city buildings under blue sky during daytime
city buildings under blue sky during daytimePhoto by Shen Pan on Unsplash

The committee raised the funds range to 3.75 to 4 percent on September 16, 12–0, and on October 28 it declined to raise the range again, 10–2, with Cook and Hammack still asking for another quarter point. I do not think that sequence is an all-clear. I think it is a committee that tightened and then waited, out loud, with two members unwilling to wait.

The statement still says inflation remains elevated. The consumer price index for September, the latest available, was 3.7 percent above its level of September 2025. The unemployment rate for September was 4.2 percent. Those are the prints the statement's adjectives have to live with. They do not look like a victory lap, and the statement did not take one.

A hold is a decision to gather more information, in the statement's own phrase. It is not a decision that the information will be friendly. Data dependence, as I have written before, is a refusal to publish the next move. Readers who want the next move are going to be sold one by somebody.

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