Section
The Federal Reserve, inflation, jobs, growth, and the policy decisions in Washington that shape them.
A first GDP reading comes in two forms, a quarterly change and an annualized rate, and it is often revised. Japan's April-June figure, raised from 1.1 percent to 1.4 percent annualized, shows how much can move.
The monthly increase came in below the 0.4 percent economists expected, but the 12-month rise was the largest since November 2022. Futures markets price a quarter-point Fed increase in December.
Four Democratic senators say they will oppose any short-term spending bill that lets the administration keep funding the war against Iran. Federal funding runs out Dec. 11, and a stopgap needs about seven Democratic votes in the Senate.
The minutes of the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting are due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. They record a discussion; the decision itself was in the statement and the 10-2 vote.
The Census Bureau's October figure arrives Tuesday, and economists expect a 0.2 percent gain. That is the same size as the average revision to the first estimate.
Sen. Tim Scott asked Jensen Huang to appear on Dec. 3 and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Dec. 10, NBC News reported. Lutnick has agreed to testify voluntarily, his spokesperson said.
The New York Fed's Williams said the central bank still has work to do on inflation, and Cleveland's Hammack backed smaller, more frequent increases. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.105 percent on Thursday.
Lawmakers have until Dec. 11 to fund the government. Democrats want a short-term bill but disagree over whether to use it to restrict money for the war with Iran.
The Treasury sells $25 billion of new 30-year bonds on Thursday, with bids due at 1 p.m. ET. Two numbers in the result, the high yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, carry most of the information.
The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in October and core prices rose 0.3 percent, each a tenth of a point above forecasts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point increase in December should be considered if core inflation came in around 0.3 percent, as it did.
SIFMA recommended a full close of U.S. dollar fixed-income trading on Wednesday, Nov. 11. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq keep regular hours, so Tuesday's Treasury yields stand until Thursday.
Lawmakers came back on Nov. 9 for a lame-duck session with government funding set to expire on Dec. 11 and the debt near its $41.1 trillion ceiling. Rep. Thomas Massie filed impeachment articles against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth the same day.
The Treasury sold $58 billion of 3-year notes on Monday at a high yield of 4.627 percent, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53. Here is how a single-price auction sets that yield and what each figure measures.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Tuesday's consumer price index to rise half as fast as in September. It is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's Dec. 8–9 meeting, where traders expect a rate increase.
Traders put the chance of a Fed rate increase in December at about 80 percent after Friday's jobs report, according to LSEG data. That figure is a futures-market price, not a forecast from the Fed.
Miller replaces Susie Wiles on Monday, days after Republicans lost control of Congress. Before Democrats take over in January, lawmakers must keep the government funded and renew the Pentagon policy bill.
Payroll growth ran well above its 12-month average and hourly pay rose 0.4 percent. The household survey was softer: 339,000 more people were working part time because they could not get full-time hours.
Consumer prices and real earnings come Tuesday, producer prices Friday. The Fed holds its range at 3.75 to 4 percent, two officials wanted an increase, and the next meeting is Dec. 8–9.
The Associated Press called both chambers for Democrats after Tuesday's vote. The Dow had its best day since April 2025 on Wednesday, and Thursday's tech selloff more than erased it. Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi are still uncalled.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8–1 for a quarter-point increase, with one member preferring half a point. It cited energy prices from the Middle East conflict. The Fed's range is 3.75 to 4 percent.
The November 4 statement sets a $58 billion 3-year note, a $42 billion 10-year note, and a $25 billion 30-year bond.
The October 28 decision has not been amended. Inflation, in the statement's word, remains elevated. The September CPI index implies a 3.7 percent twelve-month change.
The October 28 statement records a 10–2 vote to leave the target unchanged. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred another quarter-point increase.
The published upper bound of the federal funds target was 4.00 percent on September 17, 2026, from 3.75 percent. The lower bound is 3.75 percent.
The September 16, 2026 statement records a 12–0 vote to lift the target range by a quarter point. Inflation, the committee said, remains elevated.
The decision is in the first lines. The adjectives are a committee product. The vote is a count.
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 332.813. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 3.3 percent.
The funds rate can be high and unchanged. The interesting sentence is often the second one.
The published household-survey rate was 4.1 percent, down a tenth from June.
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 333.979. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 4.2 percent.
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, unchanged from April.
A high price level is not the same object as a fast rise in the price level. The words get swapped on purpose.
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 330.293. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 3.3 percent.
The Treasury's par yield for the ten-year note was 4.31 percent on April 10, 2026. The two-year was 3.81 percent.
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, down a tenth from February.
The early-1980s funds rate was a different regime. Invoking the name does not import the policy.
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 326.588. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 2.4 percent.
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, down a tenth from December.
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 325.063. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 2.7 percent.
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 3.75 percent on December 11, 2025, down from 4.00 percent. The lower bound is 3.50 percent.
The published household-survey rate was 4.5 percent, up from 4.4 percent in September.
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.00 percent on October 30, 2025, down from 4.25 percent. The lower bound is 3.75 percent.
Employers and households can describe the same month differently. Both descriptions are in the release.
The published household-survey rate was 4.4 percent, up from 4.3 percent in August.
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.25 percent on September 18, 2025, down from 4.50 percent. The lower bound is 4.00 percent.
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent in June.
The Treasury's par yield for the ten-year note was 4.23 percent on August 1, 2025. The two-year was 3.69 percent.
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.3 percent in May 2025, up from 4.2 percent in April.
Hiking and cutting are sequences of decisions. They are not moods, and they do not rhyme on command.
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.2 percent in March 2025, unchanged from February.
A basket, a set of prices, and a base. The index is not the inflation rate. The rate is a change in the index.
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.0 percent in January 2025, down from 4.1 percent in December.
The short note is where the next few policy decisions live. The long bond has a longer argument.
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.50 percent on December 19, 2024, from 4.75 percent, according to the St. Louis Fed. The lower bound is 4.25 percent.
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.2 percent in November 2024, up from 4.1 percent in October.
Two surveys, one morning, and a revision that arrives later. The headline is not the whole release.
The Treasury's par yield for the ten-year note was 4.30 percent on November 8, 2024. The two-year was 4.26 percent.
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.75 percent on November 8, 2024, from 5.00 percent, according to the St. Louis Fed. The lower bound is 4.50 percent.
