On November 2, 2026, the Treasury Department said it expects to borrow $618 billion in privately held net marketable debt during the October–December quarter, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. The estimate is $10 billion lower than the one announced in August 2026. The release gives the reason in one sentence: primarily a higher-than-assumed cash balance at the start of the quarter, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. Exclude that higher opening cash balance, and the current-quarter estimate is $24 billion higher than the August figure.
The release defines the measure as borrowing that excludes rollovers of Treasury securities held in the System Open Market Account and includes financing required when that account redeems securities. Buybacks, it says, are not expected to change the measure in a significant way, because new issuance replaces the securities that are bought back. Read the definition before treating $618 billion as "the" amount of debt.