Brent crude for January delivery settled down $5.75, or 5.85 percent, at $92.57 a barrel on Monday, according to Reuters via Xinhua. U.S. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery settled down $3.98, or 4.38 percent, at $86.85.

The selling did not stop at the settlement. In post-settlement trade on Monday, Brent was down more than $7 from Friday, at its lowest since late August, Reuters reported. In early trading at 5:25 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Brent had slipped below $90 for the first time since August, CNBC reported.

Monday's decline followed a 16 percent fall last week, Brent's steepest weekly drop since the start of the COVID pandemic, according to Reuters.

What Trump said

President Donald Trump met Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, on Monday, with Vice President JD Vance present. Afterward, Trump said the war with Iran was "militarily effectively over," Al Jazeera reported.

"We're just keeping it the status quo, and we're doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbours," Trump said. He also said: "Taking military action doesn't seem to be a very necessary thing, but we're locked and loaded," and "I think it's going to be ending fairly soon."

The status quo he described includes the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and a newly announced Task Force Iron Gate, which cuts Iran's trade by land and across the Caspian Sea, according to Al Jazeera and AP.

The Qatari prime minister said: "We discussed the situation in the region and ways to progress the US-Iran talks... Grateful for the positive discussions on reaching a deal." Al Jazeera reported that he presented a two-day proposal from Iran.

What Tehran said

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, dismissed reports of talks as "fake news," according to Al Jazeera. He said Washington must accept Tehran's seven conditions, which include lifting sanctions, releasing frozen funds, recognizing a new Hormuz shipping route worked out with Oman and ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran was open to more negotiations but "will not surrender to force and bullying." The war began on Feb. 28.

What the price is being asked to prove

The claim in Monday's tape is simple: a sharply lower Brent price means the market sees the war winding down and Gulf supply returning.

The objection is on the record. Washington says the conflict is effectively over; Tehran calls the talks fake. The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, and Trump described that as the status quo.

What would settle the question is not a speech. It is a signed agreement, a lifted blockade, or tanker traffic through Hormuz, followed by settlements that hold. Monday's $92.57 is one settlement. Tuesday's early dip below $90 is not yet another.

The one that rose

Natural gas was the exception in the energy complex. The December contract settled up 7.34 percent at $3.218 per million British thermal units, according to Reuters via Xinhua and The Edge. Gold settled at $4,114.50 an ounce, up 0.97 percent, The Edge reported.

Lower oil eased inflation worries, Reuters reported. The S&P 500 rose 2.35 percent on Monday, its best day since April 8, CNBC reported.