Helen Voss
Rates Columnist
Helen Voss is Yield Update's rates columnist. She covers the Federal Reserve, the Treasury market and the economic data that move interest rates, with a focus on what policy decisions mean for borrowers and savers.
Stories
Producer Prices Rise 0.3 Percent in October; Annual Rate Reaches 6.5 Percent
The monthly increase came in below the 0.4 percent economists expected, but the 12-month rise was the largest since November 2022. Futures markets price a quarter-point Fed increase in December.
- EconomyExplainer
What the Fed Minutes Are, and How to Read Them
The minutes of the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting are due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. They record a discussion; the decision itself was in the statement and the 10-2 vote.
Fed's Williams and Hammack Point to More Rate Increases; 10-Year Yield at 5.105 Percent
The New York Fed's Williams said the central bank still has work to do on inflation, and Cleveland's Hammack backed smaller, more frequent increases. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.105 percent on Thursday.
- EconomyExplainer
How to Read a 30-Year Treasury Auction Result
The Treasury sells $25 billion of new 30-year bonds on Thursday, with bids due at 1 p.m. ET. Two numbers in the result, the high yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, carry most of the information.
- EconomyExplainer
Why the Bond Market Is Closed on Veterans Day While Stocks Trade
SIFMA recommended a full close of U.S. dollar fixed-income trading on Wednesday, Nov. 11. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq keep regular hours, so Tuesday's Treasury yields stand until Thursday.
- EconomyExplainer
How Treasury Auctions Work, and What Monday's 3-Year Sale Showed
The Treasury sold $58 billion of 3-year notes on Monday at a high yield of 4.627 percent, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53. Here is how a single-price auction sets that yield and what each figure measures.
- EconomyExplainer
What Rate-Hike Odds Measure, and What They Do Not
Traders put the chance of a Fed rate increase in December at about 80 percent after Friday's jobs report, according to LSEG data. That figure is a futures-market price, not a forecast from the Fed.
- EconomyAnalysis
The Week Ahead: October Inflation Arrives, With the Fed Split Over a Hike
Consumer prices and real earnings come Tuesday, producer prices Friday. The Fed holds its range at 3.75 to 4 percent, two officials wanted an increase, and the next meeting is Dec. 8–9.
Tuesday's Curve: 4.61% at Two Years, 4.95% at Ten
On November 3 the ten-year par yield was 4.95 percent and the two-year was 4.61 percent. The gap is 0.34 percentage points.
Monday Starts From Friday's 4.94% Ten-Year
Treasury yields for November 2 have not been published. The last session, October 30, left the ten-year at 4.94 percent and the two-year at 4.56 percent.
The Fed Holds the Funds Range at 3.75%–4%
The October 28 statement records a 10–2 vote to leave the target unchanged. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred another quarter-point increase.
The Funds Target Range Moved Up
The published upper bound of the federal funds target was 4.00 percent on September 17, 2026, from 3.75 percent. The lower bound is 3.75 percent.
The Fed Raises the Funds Range to 3.75%–4%
The September 16, 2026 statement records a 12–0 vote to lift the target range by a quarter point. Inflation, the committee said, remains elevated.
- EconomyExplainer
How to Read an FOMC Statement
The decision is in the first lines. The adjectives are a committee product. The vote is a count.
Unemployment for July 2026 Was 4.1%
The published household-survey rate was 4.1 percent, down a tenth from June.
Unemployment for May 2026 Was 4.3%
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, unchanged from April.
- EconomyExplainer
Inflation Is a Rate of Change
A high price level is not the same object as a fast rise in the price level. The words get swapped on purpose.
The 10-Year Yield Is 4.31%
The Treasury's par yield for the ten-year note was 4.31 percent on April 10, 2026. The two-year was 3.81 percent.
Unemployment for March 2026 Was 4.3%
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, down a tenth from February.
Unemployment for January 2026 Was 4.3%
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, down a tenth from December.
The Funds Target Range Moved Down
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 3.75 percent on December 11, 2025, down from 4.00 percent. The lower bound is 3.50 percent.
Unemployment for November 2025 Was 4.5%
The published household-survey rate was 4.5 percent, up from 4.4 percent in September.
The Funds Target Range Moved Down
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.00 percent on October 30, 2025, down from 4.25 percent. The lower bound is 3.75 percent.
- EconomyExplainer
Payrolls and the Household Survey
Employers and households can describe the same month differently. Both descriptions are in the release.
Unemployment for September 2025 Was 4.4%
The published household-survey rate was 4.4 percent, up from 4.3 percent in August.
The Funds Target Range Moved Down
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.25 percent on September 18, 2025, down from 4.50 percent. The lower bound is 4.00 percent.
Unemployment for July 2025 Was 4.3%
The published household-survey rate was 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent in June.
The 10-Year Yield Is 4.23%
The Treasury's par yield for the ten-year note was 4.23 percent on August 1, 2025. The two-year was 3.69 percent.
Unemployment for May 2025 Was 4.3%
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.3 percent in May 2025, up from 4.2 percent in April.
Unemployment for March 2025 Was 4.2%
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.2 percent in March 2025, unchanged from February.
Unemployment for January 2025 Was 4.0%
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.0 percent in January 2025, down from 4.1 percent in December.
- EconomyExplainer
Why the Two-Year Moves First
The short note is where the next few policy decisions live. The long bond has a longer argument.
The Funds Target Range Moved Down
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.50 percent on December 19, 2024, from 4.75 percent, according to the St. Louis Fed. The lower bound is 4.25 percent.
Unemployment for November 2024 Was 4.2%
The unemployment rate from the household survey was 4.2 percent in November 2024, up from 4.1 percent in October.
- EconomyExplainer
How to Read a Jobs Report
Two surveys, one morning, and a revision that arrives later. The headline is not the whole release.
The 10-Year Yield Is 4.30%
The Treasury's par yield for the ten-year note was 4.30 percent on November 8, 2024. The two-year was 4.26 percent.
The Funds Target Range Moved Down
The upper bound of the federal funds target range was 4.75 percent on November 8, 2024, from 5.00 percent, according to the St. Louis Fed. The lower bound is 4.50 percent.